To anyone following the US presidential election, it should be obvious that Obama is starting to move ahead in the polls. It’s also clear that US Catholic bishops have none too subtly been signalling their support for the Republicans - and Romney’s VP pick, Paul Ryan, publicly touts his Catholic faith.

But a new interactive service by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life offers some possibly unexpected perspectives on Catholics and the state of the race:

• Catholic voters support Obama ahead of Romney by a 16% margin: 54% to 39%.
• Catholic support has increased, particularly over the six months since April: from 45% (when he lagged 5 points behind Romney) to 54% - a net turnaround of 21%.
• The Catholic support, and its increase, is seen among all Catholics, and also in the White sub-sample (where it is higher than any either specified religious group).

Any observations on “increase” are obviously affected by the choice of starting point. I have selected April 2012 because it is the start of a clear trend, and because it represents 6 months - a convenient, neat time frame. But I wonder: what was it about April that launched the uptick in support? Could it have been about then that the bishops’ intervention began.

We also need to consider - why the disparity between partisan support by the bishops, and by other Catholics? Could it be that the bishops’ concerns are based on sexual matters, and especially contraception and gay marriage - and other Catholics are more concerned with issues around justice and support for the poor- as taught in the Gospels?

Just asking.