No, it’s not going to happen (not just yet, anyway). Still, it’s a fun thought, and encouraging to note that somebody is even thinking about it. Delilah Schmidt, a sociology senior at Mississippi State U, has suggested in The Reflector that approving gay weddings could be just what is needed to solve Gov Haley Barbour’s budget problems.

….the wedding industry revenues roughly over $2 billion yearly. The average American wedding before the honeymoon costs $30,000. Thirty thousand dollars for one wedding, just one wedding, and that doesn’t take into account spending by guests on travel, attire or gifts. The average size of a guest list is 200 to 300 guests. Can you imagine the impact on the local economy by having just 30 additional weddings?

The average money spent on a wedding reception venue is $12,000. Those $12,000 are just for renting the space, not catering, favors or entertainment. Southern hospitality aside, we have beautiful winter weather; Mississippi isn’t known for its winter blizzards unlike other states recognizing same-sex marriage. Stunning plantation mansions, picturesque churches and a beautiful coastline are also in our favor. Want a beautiful winter wedding at a plantation mansion without freezing your or your guests’ bottoms off? Visit Mississippi! Have your wedding at one of our scenic locations and then honeymoon on the coast.

Mississippi would be the first state in the South to recognize these unions. We would have this new market all to ourselves. Yes, Louisiana, you have Mardi Gras but that is only once a year. Weddings are a year-round occurrence and a billion dollar industry. You could say the money spent on a wedding could be spent elsewhere in Mississippi. I agree, but a wedding is seen as a huge milestone in one’s life course. People will go into debt to celebrate these milestones. Why shouldn’t we take their money?

For now, the prospects of this fantasy becoming a reality are off everyone’s radar - but not for long. Legal recognition for same sex couples is spreading at such a rate, that it will not be long before civil unions, followed by full marriage, will indeed come even to Mississippi. Already, 42% of Americans live in states that recognize some form of gay marriage, civil union or domestic partnership, and public support is increasing steadily. The increasing visibility and respectability of these couples is a powerful force breaking down the remaining resistance.

It is significant that this suggestion has come from a college student: among the youngest adults, support is already a done deal, even among many political and religious conservatives. Generational change alone will produce change, but there is no need to depend on that alone. Research shows clearly that in the older age groups too, many people are changing their minds and moving in the direction of acceptance.

A couple of years ago, the noted statistician Nate Silver put together some statistics to identify the latest year at which an attempt to ban gay marriage would fail at the ballot box. His findings?

Mississippi, sadly for Ms Schmidt’s proposal, is likely to be the last state to come around to marriage equality - but wait long enough, and even here, it will come. It’s worth taking another look at Nate’s conclusion to his post, written nearly two years ago now (3rd April, 2009) :

By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024.

It is entirely possible, of course, that past trends will not be predictive of future results. There could be a backlash against gay marriage, somewhat as there was a backlash against drug legalization in the 1980s. Alternatively, there could be a paradigmatic shift in favor of permitting gay marriage, which might make these projections too conservative.

Overall, however, marriage bans appear unlikely to be an electoral winner for very much longer, and soon the opposite may prove to be true.

Look closely at that prescient closing sentence. Just two years later, and already the first part of that statement is becoming widely recognized. In many areas, even Republicans are recognizing that opposition is no longer a vote winner. A few more years, and the second part will likewise become true.

Even in Mississippi.